SoftBank’s $7.1 Billion Loss Exposes Risks in AI Gas Bet

The bet began with a rush to secure equipment. Starting about two years ago, SoftBank reportedly placed deposits on more than 13 gigawatts of turbines—almost 50% more than it needed. The company’s SB Energy subsidiary had announced in February that it would spend $33 billion on a 9.2-gigawatt natural gas power plant. SoftBank also made a $30 billion investment in OpenAI in early 2025.

Turbine queues now stretch into the early 2030s as data centers seek power faster than the grid can provide it. Peter Gardett, CEO of Noreva, told TechCrunch that SB Energy “did not have a choice except to overbook turbines in the future if they wanted some turbines right away.” The deposits were nonrefundable, leaving SoftBank exposed as its expectations shifted.

Gardett described the loss as “price discovery”: SoftBank chose to overpay and over-order rather than risk paying more later and still falling short. The episode reflects the pressure on AI companies and developers to find dependable electricity, but natural gas carries risks of its own. Brent Nelson, senior managing director of markets and strategy at Ascend Analytics, told the Equity podcast that winter supply curtailments can coincide with spikes in demand.

Nelson said most data centers would be better served by a grid connection, even if smaller than initially requested, with large batteries helping cover peak loads or utility curtailment requests. Operators may be reassessing how much gas capacity they need, slowing growth in the market. SoftBank’s losses are unlikely to trigger mass cancellations of gas power plants, the source says, as AI’s electricity demand remains large. Natural gas is still in demand, but SoftBank’s experience suggests the bet has limits.